July 30th, 2010

Do you think it is possible to trace your family tree until you get back to Charlemagne?

My cousin is the historian of the family and says he has traced the family back to one of the wives of Henry VIII, King Alfred the Great and Charlemagne. I understand that if the member of the royal family can be traced back centuries. But not us. So while I agree Charlemagne and the rest has thousands of descendants do not think it would be possible, even for royalty to go back that far. Surely there would be no no existing records left.

People on this site do not admit it, but as kings and leaves children more than the poor did. And their children were more likely to live to adulthood to produce even more children. The net effect of all this is that in a span of centuries and millennia, each person will kings, bishops, Caesars, etc, as ancestors. See http://genealogyofpresidents http://humphrysfamilytree.com/famous.descents.html. blogspot.com / http://www.rkwest.com/personal/mycousins/?page_id=8 google any of the famous kings and see how many descendants they left. What is the reason why only three generations could claim to be real, in three generations there are thousands I., also, and many others appeal to the descendants of Charlemagne (former President Thomas Jefferson to be one). I followed three of his children. But, hey, read this Book: "Mapping Human History: Discovering the past through our genes" by Steve Olson. Olson says that everyone in the world is descended from Nefertiti, Confucius and Julius Caesar. Therefore, everyone has a common ancestor in the past two millennia. This excerpt is from the third reference link above: http://www.rkwest.com/personal/mycousins/?page_id=10 My Other Cousins Everybody is descended from Charlemagne by Jack Lee what I was researching my ancestral line back Lee in the Middle Ages, I was excited to see me as a descendant direct Charlemagne, the first emperor of the Holy Roman Empire. As I dug deeper, I found at least three different lines of descent from him to me, and I saw more and more genealogical sites on the Web that claimed descent similar. This led me to think about how likely it is that I or anyone else for that matter, might be descended from a particular person back. As a mathematician (though by no means a probability), I should be able to get at least a rough estimate of probability. My conclusion, which is surprising (at least for me) is that there is virtually no possibility that any person of European descent is not directly descended from Charlemagne. Here is my reasoning. Charlemagne was approximately 40 generations ago from today. Each person has two parents, four grandparents 22 = 23 = 8 great-grandparents, … and 240, or about 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion), the 40th generation ancestor, which means half a billion men's ancestors. Of course, as the entire male population of Europe at the time of Charlemagne was only about $ 15 million, half billion of these ancestors can not all have been different men – has obviously been a lot of crosses, and many of our ancestral lines cross and cross again, with time up to the same person. Suppose that each of my 40th generation male ancestors is a man chosen at random from the eighth century Europe (this is not really valid, but more on that later). Choose any one ancestor, that my father father father … father, the probability that a particular person is Charlemagne is one in 15 billion euros. Pretty small. To put it another way, the probability that any predecessor in particular was not Charlemagne is 1 – 1 / 15, 000,000, or approximately 0.999999933 But now consider the probability that none of my ancestors 40th generation is Charlemagne. For that to happen, each of my men half a trillion ancestors not have to be Charlemagne, which would be an amazing coincidence. To see the incredible, we will calculate the probability. Assuming that all these different events not be-Charlemagne independent of each other (more on that later), the laws of probability state that the probability that all these events occur simultaneously is obtained by multiplying their individual probabilities: (0.999999933) A ° (0.999999933) · Â Â · … (0.999999933) = (0.999999933) 500,000,000,000. This turns out to be an incredibly small numbers: one chance in 1015,000. That's a one with zeros after 15,000, a number that is too large even for viewed in a browser window. This is more than the number of atoms in the universe (which is estimated at around 1080). Therefore, if this analysis is close even remotely correct, it is virtually impossible for Charlemagne is not my direct ancestors. Of course, there are few sources of error in this analysis, so that there are different corrections one could do that might lead to a more accurate estimate. Obviously one of ancestors are not in fact randomly chosen people of Europe eighth century. For example, anyone who had no children, grandchildren or not, can not be an ancestor of anyone living now. (Charlemagne's descendants have been documented to date today.) In general, wealthy people survived a much higher rate than the rest of the population, and so were much more likely to produce offspring – The ancestors are more likely to be among the relatively small population of royalty and nobility, including Charlemagne. You could think of other, smaller, c


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